Aerospace Pulse Check Q2/2024

Current sentiment

In the run-up to the ILA in Berlin, sentiment in the industry is rising to its highest level since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in QII/2022.

76% of respondents rate the mood as positive or very positive, while the number of those who describe the mood as negative or very negative has halved again from 8% to 4% compared to the last survey. 

The good capacity utilisation and the benefits of Airbus' dominance in the civil aviation segment are contributing to this positive mood (especially in the European supply industry). The industry is also fundamentally affected by different issues than the rest of the German economy. The signs are still clearly pointing to growth and recruitment, which are clearly the main topics, well ahead of cost-cutting measures or even staff reductions. In this respect, there was no difference in the discussions compared to the QI/2024 sentiment barometer from February.

However, the current rates of missing parts at OEMs and Tier-1s seem to be rising again, which can be seen from the large number of ad-hoc requests and orders from both Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers.

Sustainability in companies and products has arrived as a topic in the supply chain

The requirements of current and future regulation are relevant for companies in the aviation supply chain. More than 70% of the respondents consider this topic to be very relevant / relevant. This is surpassed in relevance by collaborations with other companies along the supply chain (very relevant / relevant for 75% of the respondents).

Programs to reduce a company's own CO2 emissions are also at a similarly high level, with ~72% considering these programs to be very relevant / relevant.

With regard to the technological contribution of propulsion concepts to sustainability, more than 80% of respondents rate the further increase in the efficiency of existing propulsion concepts as very relevant / relevant, closely followed by the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) at ~76%.

When it comes to more disruptive propulsion concepts, hybrid-electric solutions are considered to be very relevant/relevant by ~74%, well ahead of hydrogen-based (~40%) and purely electric propulsion solutions (~39%).

Particularly in view of the strong political support for hydrogen, there is still a lot of work to be done to convince people within the industry.

In addition to the technological innovations evaluated here, the participants mentioned a number of other approaches for increasing sustainability, starting with the classic discipline of aircraft construction, lightweight construction and further weight reduction, including the use of additive manufacturing processes (e.g. 3D printing, wire-arc additive manufacturing).

Assessment of the feasibility of selected program

The technological evaluation of individual drive technologies/concepts is also reflected in the evaluation of selected current aviation program. Here, classic and hybrid-electric concepts are winning well ahead of purely electric concepts, which, with the exception of the HEART-AEROSPACE ES 30 program, still have further technological challenges to overcome (VTOL).

However, the performance of the MAEVE M80 program should also be emphasised. Respondents estimate its feasibility and long-term establishment at 68%, ahead of the significantly more advanced D328 program, which respondents estimate at 50% feasibility.